• Virginia McGathey

Grains & Livestock Commentary


By Virginia McGathey Nov. 19, 2019


Grains

Markets remain quiet overall awaiting news of any progress on the US/China trade deal. USDA Crop Progress report reveal Corn 76% and Soybean 91% harvest behind the 5 yr average of 95%. Easing of the US dollar index does offer some underlying support for all grains including Soybean Oil & Meal.

Corn - Rebounds Futures gain back yesterday’s losses however prices remain on the lows since late September. Corn export markets remain non-competitive and should cap any significant rally.


Wheat - Higher Gains continue to add up since testing a new recent low yesterday 498 1⁄2 on the December contract. A full 15 cent rally shows how thin the futures are and lends itself to further vulnerability to more volatility going forward.

Soybeans - Bounce back Technical buyers jump in to get a bargain on a 7 week low. Without movement in the US?China trade deal there is an expectation the futures will stay in the channel and trade sideways for now.

Livestock

Meat substitute industry is on the rise as US plant based meat makers look to gain a footing in the huge untapped market. Consumers that are avid food trend followers are more willing to test new cuisines. The players: Zhenmeat, Starfield and Whole Perfect Food. It seems the beef market has benefitted from the tariff war and the pork market has not.

Live Cattle -Steady Tyson says the Kansas plant is prepared to get back on line in just three weeks to be back to full operations by January. This normally would add a bearish sentiment to futures prices. This news has been digested without having any effect on futures, revealing the strength of the markets.

Feeder Cattle - Easier Futures slipped a bit today possible giving a tell to the correction that experts say will come. While we cannot exact a downtrend status, we have not been able to break through the highs established on November 1. Clearly the beef industry are focused on Friday’s USDA’s Cattle on Feed report. Lean Hogs - New Low Not since early September have we seen these prices. Traders are pessimistic about trade deal progress any time soon. Supplies continue to build along with hog weights. The bearish cloud expands further over the entire pork industry.


Lean Hogs - New Low Not since early September have we seen these prices. Traders are pessimistic about trade deal progress any time soon. Supplies continue to build along with hog weights. The bearish cloud expands further over the entire pork industry.





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